The Strait of Hormuz Could Trigger the Energy Shock of Our Lives

So, my kind of theory or thesis on the situation is the strait opens when Iran wants it to open, not when Trump tweets. So, the next one I have here is 2 weeks to open the strait, the Strait of Hormuz. So, on the Iranian situation became maybe the strait flows like the oil flows are going to be affected into 2027 now. So, it became like a thing that we thought we were going to solve maybe like the Venezuelan situation in like a week or two. Um to become like, "Oh, this

is going to affect us for the next year now." So, a lot of economists or oil analysts say, "This is the biggest energy shock of our lifetimes." Like far bigger than the oil embargo, even though oil prices don't affect it like the way that they did in the '70s. Oil briefly went up to like $120 and then it went as low as $60 a barrel. And people are saying the US or the West collectively can keep the paper price of oil low at the detriment of draining their strategic petroleum reserve.

So, it's like the fair price of oil isn't reflected in people's consumption of it right now cuz usually when the price is higher, people will consume less oil and then the market self-corrects like a laissez-faire system. Well, right now people are consuming a high level of oil at an artificially suppressed price at the detriment of your like your energy independence cuz as strategic petroleum reserves get really low, at some point the market has to self-correct and it usually self-corrects with a vengeance. So, my kind of theory or thesis on the

situation is the strait opens when Iran wants it to open, not when Trump tweets. And so, recently they went back and forth again where Trump was saying like you know, we're we're controlling the straits and then Iran came back saying like, "Are you though?" Like I think it was something like 130 ships were sailing through the strait before the Zionists and the mega Zionists decided like, okay, we're going to preemptively attack Iran because of the yeah, kind of the chaos that they're creating in the Middle East or to prevent them

from getting a nuclear weapon. But right now it's become I think one of Trump's biggest kind of like blotches or like quagmires that he's been into so far and you can argue whether he really wanted to do that. Was he overconfident after Venezuela or was he compromised? And his hand was forced to make these decisions even though it's going to affect his legacy, I think. So, that's kind of like a quick catch-up to people who haven't been following this that closely, but a lot of people early on were cheering on

the intervention. I would say the monarchists, which are people who support the Shah or what Iran used to have, which the Shah of Iran was basically an American kind of proxy leader who did America's bidding for them and allowed America to extract as much Iranian oil as they wanted to or at least at prices that were favorable. Like their own kind of petrodollar axis with Iran, where now you see even though Trump is saying we've defeated Iran multiple times, Iran's still able to control the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't mean

their military's the most prominent or the biggest in the region. I don't think at all it is, but once weaponry has gone to Iran uses these low-cost drones where America and like the IDF uses missiles to shoot down these drones, but the mass don't add up because it's like a $10,000 drone is getting shot down by like a million dollar missile. So, eventually I that's my read on it why they keep having these pauses in the conflict. It's for America to rearm again where I don't think Iran necessarily needs those

pauses cuz they can keep up this kind of warfare indefinitely and threaten ships from sailing through. And it's just follow the numbers of ships that are um like passing through the Strait of Hormuz, it's like a fraction of what it was before the war. And I don't think this is sustainable longer term. And again, I think America's been overconfident in their ability to impose their will on other countries in the world. >> Yeah, and and to me this reminds me of like the Vietnam war, the Iraq war, like Afghanistan, because

it's the same pattern where you have a military superpower who has way more money, resources, a strong military, but the the weaker party, they kind of just need to like hold out long enough, right? Because it's very cheap for them to continue attacking the the Strait of Hormuz right? >> No, it's very All it takes is a few drones to threaten a ship, and then it's like the insurance companies don't want to insure those ships going through there anymore. And if you don't have insurance, you're not going to pass through

the strait. >> And they don't need to win militarily, they just need to hold out long enough and cause enough like economic economic damage until politically it becomes unpopular to support the war anymore. I think the same thing happened in Vietnam and and the other wars in the Middle East. And it's like not having learned that lesson kind of you can win the war militarily, but the weaker party >> loses it economically. >> Time is on their side, right? All they need to do is just hold out long enough. And

you can't like it only takes a few people to keep like bombing the Strait of Hormuz, right? >> definitely. >> How do you How do you root out every single person who who wants to continue up that tactic? >> No, definitely. And you're creating an incentive loop, which is both of them are kind of playing like Yeah, like you're saying, who can outlast each other more. But I think the way that Iran's fighting, it is like the Vietnam, except it's a modern-day guerrilla warfare being fought with like drones or cheaper

forms of ballistic missiles that they can produce at a fraction of the cost that the West can. And then it is outlasting them, and I think energy is the livelihood of any economy. So, if you threaten, let's say the lifeblood of the economy, eventually, I think America's going to have to fold or give Iran more of what they want, or it becomes a bigger war. And there's theories that are saying they'll artificially suppress the price of oil until midterms, and then they'll let it run again, cuz oil directly affects inflation.

Like as the oil price rises, it affects everything. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I think there was one study that found that already, in addition to the costs of the war, there's like $40 billion of additional oil costs that's been passed on to American citizens. Comes out to like an extra like $300 per person, you know, since the start of this year. So, it's an indirect tax on American citizens. >> And these are even a fraction of what I would have thought oil prices would have been, cuz there was always a

theory that, based on the oil embargo of the '70s, that if Iran was to use their trump card, which was to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil could go north of $200 a barrel. We were as low as 60 with them actively shooting at like these these LCC tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Which in a scenario like that 20 years ago, you probably would have seen like a doubling of the price of oil quite quickly. >> And and I think unfortunately, like the administration in the US, there's like a

sunk cost fallacy, right? Because they said this is going to be what, a 2-week or a 4-week like war, and now it's dragged on for 5 months. And already they've invested, you know, like tens of billions of I think it was like 40 or 50 billion dollars. And so now if they pull out, they have to admit that that was a waste, right? So so they're they're kind of incentivized to double down, but then the longer this drags on, each additional investment like looks even worse if now they admit defeat.

So then that's what we saw in these other countries, right? These wars can drag on for like decades, because they they don't like they don't want to admit that this was a mistake. >> No, and I think the quicker that the Trump regime acknowledges that China and Russia will not allow Iran to fall. That's been my theory for like decades now. There's strategic, let's say, countries in the region that are too important for Russia and China to keep independent as opposed to being toppled by America again that they won't allow

them to run out of drones or missiles when everyone thinks that like Iran's being defeated. There's a joke on X that's like, "Oh, this is the 30th time that we've won the war against Iran." Based on true social posts. But it's like, but ships still aren't passing through the strait. Something's not mathing here. But then Trump will be like, "But oil prices are low." And the average citizen in America isn't informed enough to follow like, "Oh, but we're draining our strategic petroleum reserves to an unhealthy level here to artificially keep

that oil price low." >> But I think Trump is losing support due to this. And you can't you can't trust the polling numbers exactly too cuz they have their own incentives. But yeah, I got I got some numbers here. Trump's approval on handling Iran is at 29%. This is in June. And overall approval was 35%. Cost of living approval at 22%. So I think what's happening is that individual American consumers are seeing their cost of living like going up or not dropping. And they're like, "Why are why are we spending

these billions of dollars in this foreign war when like back home we're we're eating the cost of this?" >> Yeah, I always look at what Cicero, the Roman statesman, said. Like, who sets the benefit? And that's kind of my scientist wager. Like, who sets the benefit in this skirmish dragging out or potentially making it an existential war? It's definitely not the American voter. But you could say for like the Zionist, this is their one cause. And if they do have something on Trump, they're going to push it until it's too

late. >> Well, yeah, and this gets into like this was kind of surprising to me, but um there's there's like the American Evangelical Christians. There's a non-insignificant group that makes up a lot of Trump's voter base that actually believes a bit a biblical prophecy that Israel needs to claim some greater land and build some temple. >> yeah. >> And then we're going to see the second coming of Jesus that happens after that. So they they actually believe this this prophecy that's causing them to vote in such a way that's leading

to this foreign war policy and it it it's kind of it's kind of crazy actually, but um yeah, how much how much of what's happening in the world, if you look at the actual numbers of evangelicals in the different religions who believe that we're in some end times prophecy right now and according to what the prophecy said, they're like determining what our foreign our foreign policy should be. >> Would you say the demon the demon of certainty has possibly possessed those people? >> Oh, absolutely. The demon of certainty's rearing his

ugly head. >> Yeah, he's captured them. Yeah, like Trump says America controls the strait where Iran says they control the strait and I think all you have to look flow is like the flow of the ships going through and I think even if America has another blockade with them, it's kind of like they're both is the word like I think self-immolation. Like they're both causing drastic damage to their economies, but if you look at Russia and Iran, they've been sanctioned for years. They're used to living in like a war economy

cuz they've been sanctioned for so long and people really believe like America is kind of the greater Satan. Like that's actually how they view it. Like these these countries will do anything to squash our cultures or our our belief systems. So they believe it's an existential war for them. And I would always bet against the people who are more just like touristy or meandering in the world as opposed to people with skin in the game who view it as an existential war cuz the average American definitely doesn't view it like

that. >> And then these actions of attacking them are actually feeding that narrative in their mind where it's like, "See, this you know, this American devil is is attacking us." And then you're going to radicalize a a young generation and the cycle just kind of continues. >> No, and I think the greatest thing for America now would be to return the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz as quick as as possible. But wait, it was almost like that before they preemptively attacked Iran. So, that that just makes me feel

like it wasn't Trump's like decision-making or overconfidence necessarily that drove him to do that. It's more the compromise. >> Could be compromised, could be being fed bad intel from his like cabinet or his surrounding advisers who, right? Who But everyone has agendas, right? There's all these individual agendas to influence the president's decision in all these different ways. And yeah, there's there's all this complexity of like incentives playing out. Which is why I'm just kind of against these these uh these presidents, you know, these rulers of these countries are kind of

playing risk, right? They're playing this game with with people's lives that's affecting the common people's livelihood. >> But they're also playing risk with like secret or let's say like cabal-like agreements before the war starts and then we're just analyzing the risk board from what we see. >> Oh, yeah, we don't see what's happening behind the scenes right? >> I think that's definitely driving things way more than people would like to acknowledge to think like, "Oh, we can't possibly be compromised. We're the biggest country or the most powerful country in the

world." But it's like, "Well, all it takes is one man to let his guard down or let his pants down." >> [laughter] >> And then, yeah, we'll never know. And I think that >> want to note for the record, uh Niver and I are not suicidal. >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're We're not suicidal and we also are We're just doing our homework, basically. We're connecting dots as opposed to accepting the status quo narrative. >> Yeah, I mean, and I hold uncertainty on a lot of these things, but I have a

conviction that time will reveal truth. Right? Information can't be kept under wraps for long enough because you have infighting in these own parties and eventually I I I have strong conviction that eventually the the truth will surface. It might take a long time. Might take years. It might take decades, but eventually, especially in the age of AI and information exchange, you can't suppress information anymore. >> Yeah, I'm not quite as optimistic as you on that, but I I hope you're right. Yeah, I think some conspiracies run so deep that if

they were released, it's too damning for like the public or for people's careers or legacies that they'll do anything to suppress it even if it's like genocidal wars. >> Well, we just have to hope that there's like an Edward Snowden, someone who just like I'm just going to release the files, mic drop. Like, let let chaos ensue and let things play out as they do because this is truth. This is what happened. Here's the evidence. People can decide for themselves.